Mumbai | October 1, 2025, 11:20 IST — Filed via trade & customs sources
India’s imports of gold and silver surged nearly twofold in September compared to August, driven by aggressive stocking by banks and jewellers ahead of the festive season and anticipated changes in import duty benchmarks, according to customs and trade sources.
Sharp Rise Despite Record Prices
Even though global and domestic bullion prices are at all-time highs, import volumes and values climbed sharply. Sources say customs clearances have spiked in the final weeks of September as stakeholders sought to import before any upward adjustment in the import “tariff value” (base price used for duty calculations).
Estimates suggest importers cleared significantly more tonnage for both metals in September than in preceding months, a trend rarely seen amid such elevated pricing.
Why the Import Rush?
Several interlocking factors are behind this surge:
- Festive demand: The run-up to Diwali and other gold-intensive festivals typically spurs early buying by jewellers to meet retail demand.
- Tax/duty changes: An impending revision to the import “tariff value” — which determines customs duty payable — has pushed buyers to import before the base increases.
- Institutional stocking: Banks and bullion traders are replenishing inventory, anticipating firm upside in bullion prices.
- Safe-haven demand: With global volatility, gold and silver remain top picks for portfolio hedging, adding to import momentum.
Impact on Trade & Rupee
The import jump could widen India’s trade deficit and put additional pressure on the rupee. Analysts caution that at a time when external balances are already under stress, such surges in precious metal imports magnify current account risks.
Customs data suggest that last-minute clearances intensified as importers rushed to beat changes in valuation norms.
Price Response
The strong import flows coincide with record domestic prices. MCX gold touched new highs, and silver futures surged accordingly. Despite the expensive entry levels, buyers appear undeterred, influenced by festival sentiment and limited opportunity to import later.
At the same time, the premium over international bullion rates has widened in some cases by up to $8/oz.
Risks & Watch Points
- Over-importing risk: If demand softens post-festive season, heavy inventory could spark price pressure.
- Policy reversal: If the government accelerates changes or increases duties further, the cost of imported gold/silver may rise steeply.
- Rupee vulnerability: Elevated imports add foreign exchange pressure, especially if other capital inflows slow.
- Smuggling / grey market: Import surges may incentivize informal trade channels unless enforcement tightens.
Outlook
The September import spike is likely to amplify bullion’s domestic rally in the near term. But sustainability will depend on real consumer demand post-festival and the government’s policy stance on duty valuations.
For investors and traders, tracking customs filings, retailer stocking levels, and updates to the tariff value notifications will be key metrics in the weeks ahead.
