Mumbai | Oct 9, 2025, 09:00 IST — The Indian rupee is set to open slightly firmer on Thursday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and steady intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) whenever the currency tests the ₹88.80 level.
Narrow Opening Range
Early interbank quotes suggest the rupee will start near ₹88.74–₹88.76 per dollar, modestly stronger than Wednesday’s close of 88.80. Dealers said the RBI has been actively buying rupees over the past week to anchor the exchange rate and prevent a rapid slide.
“The 88.80 level has effectively become the line in the sand,” one treasury dealer noted. “The RBI’s presence is visible and consistent, giving traders less incentive to push the currency weaker.”
Dollar Weakness Helps
The U.S. dollar index retreated overnight, slipping to ~104.9 from 105.3, as U.S. Treasury yields dipped and investors took stock of upcoming inflation data. This eased pressure across Asian currencies, with the rupee among the beneficiaries.
Meanwhile, global oil benchmarks stayed largely stable, with Brent crude trading near $85.4 per barrel. That provided relief for India’s import-heavy economy, which is sensitive to oil swings that can widen the current account deficit.
By the Numbers
| Metric | Latest | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| Rupee Opening Range | ₹88.74–₹88.76 | ₹88.80 (close) |
| RBI Watch Level | ₹88.80 | Repeated cap |
| Dollar Index (DXY) | ~104.9 | ~105.3 |
| Brent Crude | ~$85.4/bbl | Flat |
Market Sentiment
Traders expect the rupee to remain confined to a narrow band through the session, given the RBI’s willingness to intervene and relatively calm global conditions. Exporters are likely to sell dollars on upticks, while importers may use dips to cover near-term obligations.
Analysts caution, however, that the central bank’s interventions, while effective in containing volatility, may not completely reverse pressure if global markets turn risk-averse. “The RBI can smooth the path but not change the direction if the dollar strengthens sharply,” said a Mumbai-based currency strategist.
What to Watch Today
- RBI’s presence during the first trading hour will set the tone.
- Oil markets, which remain the key swing factor for India’s trade deficit.
- Global dollar moves, particularly ahead of U.S. inflation data due later this week.
Risks Ahead
While the rupee has found a short-term anchor, the currency remains vulnerable to:
- A sudden spike in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions.
- Portfolio outflows, if foreign investors pare Indian equity or bond exposure.
- Global data surprises, particularly from the U.S., that could reignite dollar strength.
Outlook
For now, the rupee is expected to consolidate around the ₹88.70–₹88.80 zone, with RBI support cushioning downside risks. Markets are likely to remain cautious but stable until fresh triggers emerge from global macro data or crude markets.
